There aren’t many better examples of profiting from 2up than Ajax vs Tottenham in the Champions League Semi-Final of May 2019. What a game it was! We’ve already explained what the concept of the 2up offer from Bet365 and Paddy Power so how did we use it during this match?
Making the selection for the 2up offer
Spurs were already trailing 1-0 from the first leg at White Hart Lane. However, the statistics or gut feeling had no impact on making the decision to back Ajax for the ‘2up’ offer. As a result of the bookmakers odds being close to the betting exchange odds, Ajax were the qualifying selection.
Placing the initial bets
It was possible to back Ajax at 2.25 (5/4 old school odds). Whilst you could lay them on the betting exchanges at 2.26.
Therefore, placing a bet of £100 meant that a lay at 2.26 would leave a small qualifying loss of only £0.45.
However, if you decided to ‘Underlay’ then you would break even if Ajax won. This would leave a small risk of £0.79 if they failed to win. See the Oddsmonkey* Calculator example here;
Conversely, with an ‘Overlay’ if Ajax win then there is a risk of only £1.00. This leaves a safety net of a break even position if they fail to win.
Personally, I went with the Overlay option, as Ajax could draw the game and progress to the Champions League Final.
What happened next?
Tottenham started the game disastrously, with Matthijs de Ligt giving Ajax the lead after only 5 minutes of the game. In the 35th minute Hakim Ziyech extended their lead to give us the 2up on Ajax vs Tottenham. Half time arrived in Amsterdam with Spurs needing to score 3 times in the second half. A tall order indeed to keep their Champions League hopes alive.
At this stage, it meant that the bookmaker had paid out on Ajax winning the game. Therefore, £125 is back into the account, with the liability of £126 on the betting exchange no longer required. Reducing the liability by backing Ajax will therefore be profit. The odds on Ajax are now very short (around 1.12 or so). But despite this a profit of around £21/£22 can be made if backing them on the Exchange to reduce liability.
But could Tottenham make a heroic comeback during the second half?
With Ajax now in total control of the Semi Final tie would Tottenham be able to make a comeback? We didn’t have long to wait. In the 55th minute Lucas Moura finally got Spurs going to bring the game back to 2-1. As a result, we already had the opportunity for an increased profit due to the odds now increasing on Ajax to win the match.
Due to the odds fluctuating around between 1.45 to 1.50 fast action is needed to guarantee a profit now. Taking the profit now meant you had a guaranteed return of around £70-£75.
Holding out for the bumper pay day
Tottenham now suddenly had their tails up and within almost no time at all the game was back to 2-2. Andre Onana made an outstanding save from Fernando Llorente from close range, but panicked as he tried to grab the ball. Lucas Moura popped up again to put the ball into the net after some exquisite footwork. Game on!!
At this stage the odds fluctuated wildly on the betting exchanges as the market didn’t quite know how to react. A potential profit of around £155 is available now with Ajax priced well above the starting odds (around 3.25). However, if you left the position to run, the higher the price would get as the game stayed at 2-2. Together with this was the opportunity for another goal by Tottenham which would then give you a much inflated return.
And then the comeback was complete…!
With the game at 2-2, Ajax still lead 3-2 on aggregate so would still progress to the Champions League final. Therefore Tottenham had to continue to push forwards and seek the 3rd goal that would complete their comeback. Ajax started to show nerves and were sitting back trying to hold onto their lead. Personally I decided to start dripping some bets at this stage. This meant that if Ajax got a third and winning goal then I would profit twice. Remember, the bookmaker has paid out on Ajax winning, reducing the liability on the exchange is simply money in the bank.
Tottenham had their chances to complete the comeback, but it all looked to be in vain. As the match headed into injury time Ajax were going to hold on. But then it happened. In the 96th minute Moussa Sissoko played a hopeful ball forward one last time towards Fernando Llorente. An Ajax defender battled with Llorente for the ball and it ricocheted into the path of Dele Alli. With great compsure, Alli played the ball into the path of the on running Lucas Moura. And Moura completed his hatrick by stroking the ball perfectly into the corner of the net for an unbelievable winner. What scenes and if you were on the 2up offer it was all the better!!
By letting the position run its whole course you would have made an outstanding profit of £225 from an initial “worst case scenario” of £1 at risk.
There you have it. Ajax vs Tottenham 2up in the Champions League. The night that cost Paddy Power a payout of £860,000 due to 2up.
If you want to watch the highlights of this glorious night then scroll down.